Power Transition Theory and the Middle East

Can We Predict a Conflict?

Abstract

This paper will attempt to analyze the current regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran by applying Power Transition Theory tweaked to be implemented in a regional manner. This paper will be divided into four sections, with some inter-lap in the middle sections. The first section will focus on a literature review of Power Transition Theory and the previous theories of International Relations that preceded it. This will include an analysis of the third image of war historically and under Kenneth Waltz and for Power Transition theory will focus on the works of Organshi, Lemke, Krugler and other contemporary academics. The second section of this paper will look at the historical context that shapes the contemporary issues of not only Saudi Arabia-Iran relations but as well as Sunni-Shia relations and Middle Eastern politics at large. The third section will focus primarily on the contemporary issues between the two countries including but not limited to; ethnoreligious divisions, regional hot conflicts and instability (as well as Iran and Saudi Arabia’s involvement in them), and international oil markets. Lastly, this paper will apply Power Transition Theory to see whether or not there a burgeoning conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is on the horizon or not. This paper will provide not only a predicative exercise of a specific conflict but also a contemporary check on a celebrated conflict theory.

Discipline: Political Science Honours

Faculty Mentor: Dr. Jean-Christophe Boucher