Edmonton Mean Temperature Prediction

Abstract

The purpose of this project was to fit a model that would approximately predict the mean temperature in Edmonton, Alberta over the next 12 months. The original dataset was obtained from Environment Canada and provided insight on the mean temperatures between March 1967 and December 2017. A small discrepancy in this data set is that an entry was not made for December 2007. To account for this, it seemed most reasonable to average the mean temperatures of November 2007 and January 2008. Some of the methods used in arriving to a conclusion include fitting seasonal ARIMA models, examining periodogram for seasonality/ weather patterns, completing diagnostic checks and lastly, coming up with forecasts. Ultimately, the model that best predicted mean temperature is a seasonal ARIMA model: (2,0,0) x (0,1,1)12, which ensured that the residuals were within the white noise bands and consisted of significantly smaller prediction errors.

Faculty Mentor: Cristina Anton

Department: Statistics