Analysis of Alberta’s Monthly Unemployment Rate 1976 – 2020

Abstract

Unemployment rates are a useful measure when looking at the functioning of the labour market, and are an important economic indicator. In this study, data was collected from the Canadian Labour Force Survey (LFS) in order to model Alberta’s monthly unemployment rate using time series analysis. The seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate in Alberta from January 1976 to November 2020 was analyzed as a time-series in order to fit an appropriate model. Models were chosen based on several evaluative methods, including checking normality, stationarity, performing outlier analysis, and generating the ACF, PACF, and EACF of the time-series. Two models were chosen and compared to determine the best model fit. The most effective of these models could be used to better understand Alberta’s unemployment rates over time and could be maintained to maximize accuracy and longevity.  Additionally, several potential explanations for changes in unemployment rates were explored. For further research, examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in hindsight, as well as comparative analysis between provinces, could be valuable in order to evaluate economic resilience and to better understand the factors affecting unemployment across Canada.

Department: Statistics

Faculty Mentor: Dr. Cristina Anton